CAMP HILL, PA – The American Transportation Research Institute (ATRI), the trucking industry’s not-for-profit research organization, has just released the update to its Crash Predictor Model, which statistically quantifies the likelihood of future crash involvement based on specific truck driving behaviors (e.g. prior crashes, violations and convictions).  

ATRI’s research draws on data from over 580,000 U.S. truck drivers over a two-year time frame.  The analysis identified more than 25 different violations and convictions that increased the likelihood of future crashes, five of which increased future crash likelihood by over 100 percent.  Simply having a previous crash increased a truck driver’s probability of having a future crash by 113 percent, 28.4 percent higher than previous ATRI Crash Predictor reports.

Recognizing that traffic enforcement, particularly those activities that target the crash predictor behaviors, is an effective tool for mitigating crashes, ATRI’s research quantifies the “top tier” states which emphasizes those states that have proven track records of maximizing their enforcement resources while minimizing their share of the nation’s truck crashes. Pennsylvania was ranked seventh overall in ATRI’s report. 

Other key findings from ATRI’s Crash Predictor Model Update are:

• ·         The top three behaviors for predicting future crash involvement, with more than 100 percent increased likelihood of a future crash, are a Failure to Yield Right-of-Way violation, a Failure to Use / Improper Signal conviction and a Reckless Driving violation.
• ·         Several behaviors have maintained stable trends across all four ATRI Crash Predictor models (2005, 2011, 2018 and 2022) as statistically significant predictors of future crash involvement including violations for Failure to Yield Right-of-Way and Reckless Driving, along with convictions for Failure to Use / Improper Signal and an Improper / Erratic Lane Changes.
• ·         The 2022 Crash Predictor update includes several new analyses, including a safety comparison of 18-20 year old truck drivers and those older than 24 years.  The report also revisits the safety of male versus female truck drivers, with female drivers continuing to be safer than their male counterparts. 
• ·         The analysis also documents a surprising differential between the percentage of female truck drivers overall (6.7%) and their much smaller representation among truck driver inspections (2.7%).  Several explanations are tested to understand the basis for the difference.

A copy of this report is available from ATRI at www.truckingresearch.org.